Bomb or Missile Likely

Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Americalex » Jun 01, 2009 3:55 pm

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france ... avion-.php

This is France's biggest newspaper, by the way. Not some shitty online drama news site.

"A bomb may well have detonated the device '
Collected by Hugues Bastien (lefigaro.fr)
01/06/2009 | Updated: 20:15 | Comments 75 | Add to my selection
INTERVIEW - Contacted by lefigaro.fr, a pilot of Air France believes that a general power outage caused by a lightning strike is unlikely.

An Airbus A330 of Air France, which provided the link Rio de Janeiro-Paris-Charles de Gaulle has disappeared over the Atlantic on Monday morning. It was carrying 228 people, including 73 passengers french. Lefigaro.fr on an Air France pilot who wished to remain anonymous evokes the possibility of an attack which caused the explosion of the aircraft.

Air France says that the device has experienced an electrical blackout. What are the consequences of such a failure on an airplane?

There are five sources of electrical power on board an aircraft. For there is a total failure, they would have five sources no longer work. When everything fails, a battery takes a transient and partial relay and a motor typically used on the ground. A kind of wind is triggered to generate electricity. For the captain has no more ability to steer the aircraft should be that all these sources of electricity are damaged. It seems difficult.

A lightning strike, as mentioned by the Minister for Transport Jean-Louis Borloo, could not you not cause such a blackout?

I am not saying that, but I wonder how we can know that there has been a lightning strike. What is known is that there obviously was a strong turbulence and electrical problems. We can then combine the two, but then to say that a lightning strike is behind all this ... In the history of aviation, is not known today if lightning strike that results in loss an aircraft.

Brazilian expert raised the possibility of landing in the ocean. This assumption is realistic?

For the aircraft could land, it must be controllable. And to be driven, there must be a little electricity. And if there is electricity, it is possible to send a message. Between the time you plane and when you ask about the water, it will take nearly half an hour. This possibility is unlikely ... In reality, what is almost certain is that we will never know what really happened. The aircraft was over the Atlantic. If it exploded in midair, there is debris scattered over ten kilometers in diameter ...

Talk about an explosion. Is that an attack could cause a general power outage?

Absolutely. One can well imagine that a bomb caused a depressurization of the aircraft, the aircraft takes time to dismantle into pieces. Similarly, it can actually be a big bomb that exploded while the aircraft, which would explain why the aircraft did not have time to send a warning signal.


It's truly an awful prospect but at this point it remains possibly the most likely explanation considering the available clues, and I've been looking at this all morning. I can't help but feel the horror of those on board, but if they were blown out of the sky that makes it a quicker death I guess.

If it is found to be a bomb or missile surely someone will claim the attack soon. Whoever it was they knew to strike when the plane was outside of Brazil's and Mozambique's radar sights.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Americalex » Jun 01, 2009 4:18 pm

A bomb seems more likely to have been sneaked in. But just to narrow down the possibility for a naval/pirate ship missile attack, I would like some feed from members here with knowledge of military ordnance and it's general availability to African black markets.

Simply put, is there a Surface to Air missile available that can shoot up to an altitude of 10000 feet, an object moving at a speed of 600km/h? I know some missiles were fired on Israel airplanes in Africa before, that's why I'm not discounting this possibility right away.

The scenario involves some pirate ship loaded with a SAM launcher and decent intelligence on the time and flight path of the plane..in fact good knowledge of the radar range of Mozambique, so that the ship can do it's assault "in the blind, over the horizon" and escape unnoticed after the deed.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Clubtender » Jun 01, 2009 6:27 pm

Foul play has not even been mentioned in US media about this tragedy. It is however very unlikely that a storm would bring down a modern airliner.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Sovernty » Jun 01, 2009 8:13 pm

It does seem like something sudden happened to it. No warnings or contact with the nearest ATC center. Strange indeed.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby O. W. Kenobi » Jun 01, 2009 9:03 pm

Nothing man-made is totally foolproof. When people make these things, they do so with the best knowledge and technology available to them at the time. However, there's always the one thing they they haven't experienced yet, or which someone overlooked, which can come back to haunt you. That's especially true when you put tons of metal and plastic around hundreds of humans, strap it all to tons more of jet fuel, and send the whole thing hurtling through the sky at high speeds, and through a bad storm in this case. It's an absolute miracle that air disasters happen as infrequently as they do.

Unfortunately, in this case, we may never know what happened. They may never recover any part of the aircraft. That in itself is going to give rise to any number of conspiracy theories, all of which are almost certainly untrue.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Americalex » Jun 01, 2009 10:25 pm

It's going to take time, but they will locate and retrieve this black box, and then we will know. It's important to find out to prevent a repeat!
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Americalex » Jun 02, 2009 9:11 am

An update: the Brazilian Air Force seems to have found what could well be the wreckage of the plane:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNew ... 8020090602

The wreckage, which has still not been confirmed to be parts from Air France flight 447, includes metallic objects and plane seats, an air force spokesman said in a televised statement.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby CTMountaineer » Jun 03, 2009 4:02 pm

Anything is possible, but I'd say a bomb having been planted would be
a realistic possibility. I don't think Al Queda has a significant naval
capability such that would position them to be able to launch a missile
from a boat 400 miles off Brazil's shore at an aircraft more than 6 miles
up in the air.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Americalex » Jun 03, 2009 6:37 pm

CTMountaineer wrote:Anything is possible, but I'd say a bomb having been planted would be
a realistic possibility. I don't think Al Queda has a significant naval
capability such that would position them to be able to launch a missile
from a boat 400 miles off Brazil's shore at an aircraft more than 6 miles
up in the air.

I agree. The only thing missing about the bomb possibility is a claim of responsability. Usually someone would relatively quickly lay claim to it. Unless behind the scene, intelligence services caught the man whom planted it, and put the whole thing under wraps to avoid giving publicity to the terrorists that were apprehended.

That's pure speculation, but I think we will know for sure once they analyze the wreckage, if there was an explosion, as it seems likely, the residue will help determine whether it was an accidental short circuit or if it was some form of planted bomb.

Why else would a new airplane simply disintegrate in 2 seconds? They have one month to locate the black box, I bet Brazil, France and the US already have submarines on the way to deepscan the ocean floor in the crash sectors.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby lesterBfearsome » Jun 03, 2009 8:10 pm

maybe because it was new the design had a flaw? maybe it was a REALLY powerful lightning strike?

or maybe someone on the plane knew "too much" and the CIA made it look like it was because of a lightnings strike :O
"What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence." - Christopher Hitchens
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby O. W. Kenobi » Jun 03, 2009 8:37 pm

The plane took several minutes to disintegrate, which seems to discount the bomb theory. The pilot sent a manual message at 11 pm that they were flying into a bad storm. There were a series of automatic messages after that, the last of them at 11:14 pm, indicating failing systems and depressurization. Much more likely that this was some sort of a catastrophic series of events related to the weather.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Americalex » Jun 03, 2009 8:38 pm

lesterBfearsome wrote:maybe because it was new the design had a flaw? maybe it was a REALLY powerful lightning strike?

or maybe someone on the plane knew "too much" and the CIA made it look like it was because of a lightnings strike :O

One of the passengers was the heir of Brazil's last Emperor (ok I'm making it sound alluring).

Well the faulty design scenario could mean big problems for airbus. Really powerful lightning stike, most planes get hit twice per overseas flight. Test planes have been hit up to 30 times in a single flight and nothing ever ever ever happened.

Unless you mean "flying saucer weapon" type lightning strike, then yes. The alternative is some military ship firing one of it's missiles either mistakenly or purposefully at the plane. It happened in the past!

O.W. Kenobi wrote:The plane took several minutes to disintegrate

Can you source that one please? That's not at all what I've read. There were no abnormal message or communication, before the one and only alarm message indicating electrical short circuit, and than all went silent. Many different sources mention that it appears to have been a "very quick" event, with no warning at all.
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby O. W. Kenobi » Jun 03, 2009 8:42 pm

"Sell low, buy lower."
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Re: Bomb or Missile Likely

Postby Americalex » Jun 03, 2009 8:58 pm

From this same article:

"These are telling us the story of the crash. They are not explaining what happened to cause the crash," Bill Voss, president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation, told the Associated Press. "This is the documentation of the seconds when control was lost and the aircraft started to break up in air."

Airline received bomb threat

Earlier Wednesday, officials at Air France confirmed that the airline received a bomb threat for a flight from Buenos Aires to Paris five days before Flight 447 went missing Sunday night.

Safe to say that there is and will continue to be confusion about the facts here, it really does change a lot if those things happened over 15 minutes or over a few seconds!'

French Defence Minister Herve Morin cautioned that there are "no signs so far" that an act of terror was involved in the disappearance and apparent crash of the plane.

"Oil stains on the water might exclude the possibility of an explosion, because there was no fire," Brazil's Defense Minister Nelson Jobim told reporters Wednesday.

It might yet be a small explosion, small enough to cause a loss of structural integrity, without bursting the tank. Another reason might be if someone opened the air lock in the middle of the storm, that would probably do it too, considering the bad weather. All options remain kind of open, but more details are emerging.

Incrementally setting the stage for the possibility of a bomb though, if you watch the words used closely.

VERY VERY VERY SAD STORY :x
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