Mosul Offensive

Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Oct 23, 2016 5:14 pm









It's like I had heard a Pershmerga commander say, the ISIS truck bomb tactics that were so devastating against the Arab Syrian Army no longer work, all opponents have adapted their tactics to counter them and they are rarely effective. But as the many samples here show (there is one from NBC I couldn't link to here but it was the most interesting one), ISIS is throwing tens of those trucks every day it seems, with only fleeting effectiveness. The video of the soldier detonating himself is something else entirely: it displays a level of fanatism rarely observed in any conflict. Some media are calling Mosul a 'mini world war' and I have to agree that this is a good descriptor for it.

"Entre le fort et le faible, c’est la liberté qui opprime et la loi qui affranchit." - Lacordaire
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Windwalker » Nov 09, 2016 12:37 pm

Americalex wrote:It's like I had heard a Pershmerga commander say, the ISIS truck bomb tactics that were so devastating against the Arab Syrian Army no longer work, all opponents have adapted their tactics to counter them and they are rarely effective. But as the many samples here show (there is one from NBC I couldn't link to here but it was the most interesting one), ISIS is throwing tens of those trucks every day it seems, with only fleeting effectiveness.


I don't know where it stands now, but the suicide-bomber as a tactic had poor results against US led coalition troops during the American accupation as well. When I completed what turned out to be my final deployment, there had been something like 8000 of these attacks, with an average 1.5 deaths per attack (including the bomber himself).

No sane commander would continue using a tactic with such an abismal failure rate, but if you look at it from the point of view of resource-availability, it makes more sense. Saddam left behind enough artillery rounds to blanken the entire surface of the middle-east, but with no working cannons to deliver them.
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Nov 09, 2016 6:13 pm

I thought it was something that ISIS came up with, but it's good to know it predates them. Now they started strapping bombs to cheap drones, which may be a better idea. It's a dumb tactic but it works if the defender has no means of intercepting the vehicle at a distance of at least 100 meters.

Saddam had been trying to acquire a huge super canon that a Quebecer had designed for him lol Gerald Bull!



This excellent 1 hour PBS documentary is perfect for anybody who wants to study this further:

"Entre le fort et le faible, c’est la liberté qui opprime et la loi qui affranchit." - Lacordaire
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Windwalker » Nov 12, 2016 9:27 am

Americalex wrote:thought it was something that ISIS came up with, but it's good to know it predates them. Now they started strapping bombs to cheap drones, which may be a better idea. It's a dumb tactic but it works if the defender has no means of intercepting the vehicle at a distance of at least 100 meters.


The bomb-car has been a fairly prevelent device in most Middle-Eastern conflicts since the invention of the car. Tactically speaking, from a Medieval perspective, it plays the role of a battering-ram, or flamable-pitch-trap. Effective.... but a very expensive investment with limit tactical scope.

Inferring the message you referred to concerning ISIS early success with the tactic, they may have been referring less broadly to the "trojan horse" tactic they were using. ISIS would capture vehicles from Iraqi patrols, torture the weakest looking member amoungst the captured Patrollers, until obtaining the time and verbal password the patrol would be expected back. Then it was a simple matter of loading as many exlosives into the patrol riggs as possible with the time allowed, and having a sucide-squad attached to drive them into the compound and detinate, while simultaniosly charging the fort from 3 or 4 sides with every conventional troop available.

This type of trickory only works so many times, and the Army starts rolling in and blasting away with the vehemence and Rightious Indignation of a man avenging the murderer of his immediate family member, and all forward bases are slightly re-designed to double as death-traps.
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Nov 14, 2016 3:35 pm

Thanks for that information.

Apparently the Iraqis are getting bogged down by ISIS in Mosul. The fact that the Islamo-humanist coalition suddenly decided to go "on the cheap" by asking the inhabitants to remain in the war zone in order to save costs associated with displacing 1.5 million refugees. The effet of this has been to prevent air strikes to which all coalition forces are accustomed (and rightly so).

Now they are getting ambushed by a much smaller force. They say they underestimated the amount of tunnel networks dug by ISIS everywhere in the city, so they are getting backstabbed and morale is starting to buckle. It is no longer far fetched to say that the whole operation may fail, as they don't have the stomach for the attrition rates associated with this kind of urban warfare intensity.

Can't say that I blame them.
"Entre le fort et le faible, c’est la liberté qui opprime et la loi qui affranchit." - Lacordaire
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Nov 18, 2016 1:53 pm

Kurdish leader declares political independence from Iraq effective once Mosul is liberated:

"Entre le fort et le faible, c’est la liberté qui opprime et la loi qui affranchit." - Lacordaire
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Nov 18, 2016 11:23 pm

"Entre le fort et le faible, c’est la liberté qui opprime et la loi qui affranchit." - Lacordaire
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Nov 28, 2016 11:06 pm



"Entre le fort et le faible, c’est la liberté qui opprime et la loi qui affranchit." - Lacordaire
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Dec 05, 2016 10:06 pm

It sounds about right, and if the last claims made towards the end are accurate, it spells complications of a serious type:

"Entre le fort et le faible, c’est la liberté qui opprime et la loi qui affranchit." - Lacordaire
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Jan 09, 2017 10:57 am

They suddenly were able to breakthrough and reach the river for the first time, and seem to be advancing on multiple vectors,

Seems like ISIS is folding back into the non-kurdish sunni-arab Western side of Mosul, which will undoubtably by tougher and bitter, their alamo basically.

Image

Mosul battle: Iraq gaining momentum against IS
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38552980
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Windwalker » Jan 10, 2017 2:58 am

above quoted BBC article wrote:The flow of IDPs [internally displaced people] from the city has increased since 29 December according to OCHA, including 15,942 in the eight days after the offensive restarted. However, OCHA also announced that security in liberated areas has also allowed 14,000 IDPs to return to Mosul city.


I would be very interested in knowing who these 14,000 "returning" people are. Most likely people who had the foresight and means to escape before ISIS arrived (and many of those fleeing were probably squating in their homes with ISIS permission).

But I am more interested in knowing if they are Kirdish or Iraqi. The Kurds are making their move on Raqqa, and there is a lot of push to split now from Iraq, while they control the biggest chunk of Syria.

Turkey (who was previously the primary obsticle to the formation of Kurdistan) is currently destroying itself from the inside via an islamist government. Their complicity with ISIS makes them increasingly irrelevant at the table.

Their have been compromises over Mosul (or rather, control of its oil infrastructure) between the Kurds and Iraq.
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Jan 17, 2017 12:33 am

"Entre le fort et le faible, c’est la liberté qui opprime et la loi qui affranchit." - Lacordaire
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Jan 18, 2017 10:41 am

Now the 'easy' part is done, the kurdish side is finally liberated.

Iraqi troops say they have ‘full control’ of eastern Mosul
http://globalnews.ca/news/3188502/iraq- ... osul-iraq/

ISIS knew it was going to give up the east side, and they made it extremely painful. The west side is something that they will never conceed. Rout the coalition forces or die trying is the name of the game for them at this point.
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Americalex » Jan 18, 2017 4:10 pm

They were able to finish off resistance in the east because they dropped the gloves and started shelling civilians with artillery and airstrikes... A 'legal' Aleppo, otherwise it would have stalled 2 kilometers from the river or more.

Direct targeting: Civilians make up almost half of Mosul casualties, says UN
https://www.rt.com/news/373436-mosul-civilians-killed-un/
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Re: Mosul Offensive

Postby Windwalker » Jan 20, 2017 12:59 pm

Americalex wrote:Now the 'easy' part is done, the kurdish side is finally liberated.

Iraqi troops say they have ‘full control’ of eastern Mosul
http://globalnews.ca/news/3188502/iraq- ... osul-iraq/

ISIS knew it was going to give up the east side, and they made it extremely painful. The west side is something that they will never conceed. Rout the coalition forces or die trying is the name of the game for them at this point.


I am still not convinced taking the rest of Mozul is really a coalition priority at this point. They seem to me to be doing a combination of the "slow-motion, under-the-radar" ethnic cleansing popular with the Iraqi Commanders, fused with the strategies laid out by Petraeus when he was the supreme theater Commander (that is buy-off all the middle of the road enemies, and rather than directly confront the hard-liners, cut out a chunk of their civilian support base to give them a real-world example of the superiority of services from the central government). When the starving people in western Mozul cant catch enough rats to feed their children, or collect enough shit for candle light at night, and look across the river at the healthy activity, street lamps, vibrant markets and busy traffic.... then they will understand the price they must endure for their support of ISIS. You cant teach people the "wrongness" of the failed ideology of aggressive-political-islam by arguing with them on the steps of a mosque, you must show them the true consequence of their choice in real terms. It is the only way they will accept it.

The falacy of brainwashing is when the victim realizes they have been duped, the entire schema collapses in their mind. Most of the ISIS supporters were never allowed to develop their brains beyond where most westerners are as 10-12 year olds. You have to take their bike away and let them see the other kids riding around freely, for them to understand who builds and distributes the bikes. They think some magic guy in the sky hands them out.
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