Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 06, 2017 10:55 pm

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Turkey still had a 10 kilometer wide corridor open with their ally, ISIS, until about a week ago. They attempted to divert forces that were holding open the link to push north into Kurdish territory.

The Syrian Ragime and the Kurds answered with a coordinated attack against the ISIS side of the link. ISIS is now fully encircled by hostile forces, their final link to Turkey most likely permanently severed. The only hope for ISIS at this point would be if the (now Al Qaeda dominated) Syrian rebels can re-capture Aleppo......

Al Qaeda IS now strengthening (to the point of making a major offensive against the Regime), but I don't think rescuing ISIS is their goal. I think they are attempting to make a show of strength to become a magnet for recruits (including potential deserters from ISIS' remaining 10k survivors, who will no longer be receiving much (if any) pay under the ISIS banner).
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 07, 2017 12:58 pm

A lot of moving parts right now....

ISIS seems to be in full retreat/collapse from all but Raqqa City and some stubborn units in Palmyra and Mozul.

The SAA (Syrian Regime) and the SDF (Kurds) are filling in the vacuum of the fleeing IS troops.

The Kurds might be forced to concede tactically valuable terrain in the Manjib Plain to the SAA due to Turkish backed troops making a push on Manjib City.

In shaping the post-ISIS battlefield, it could be to both Turkey and the SAA's advantage to have a strong link with each other.

It could turn into a timing game where the SAA are forced to start a pitched battle against the (now) Al Qaeda dominated opposition before the fall of Raqqa. All Turkey has to do in this situation is keep enough pressure on their holdings in Aleppo Province to divert Kurdish resources from the fight in Raqqa.
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 07, 2017 1:38 pm

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It seems the Kurds are concedimg the gap between the resorvoire and the lake to the Regime (in exchange for ensuring holding on to existing gains in and around manbij), and the Regime will regain control of vital military outposts in the gap unopposed.

This will put the Regime in a good position for controlling Aleppo Province post-ISIS, and is also a telling clue as to the goals of the Kurdish dominated forces: that is prioritizing thwarting Turkey's goals over positioning with the Regime over control of terrain.
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Americalex » Mar 07, 2017 1:47 pm

They understand the implications of allowing Turkey to enjoy a contiguously shared border with ISIS and I think this trumps many secondary concerns about the overall picture. And with the USA backing them, it says a lot about America's own perception of the situation (better to have an ally cooperate with the Syrian Regime than allow Turkey a link with ISIS).
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 07, 2017 6:31 pm

In the early days of the counter-offensive, John Kerry and Joe Biden both publicly warned tje Kurds against pushing west of the river (immediately after they met with officials from Turkey).

Fortunately the Kurdish leaders had the forsight to ignore Obama's ignorant, clawless, cowardly sycophants.
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 08, 2017 10:51 pm

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The Regime (SAA) now has the river on their flank for the first time in 4 years. I suspect they will push hard for the dam, so they have positioning for the upcoming seige of Raqqa....

If Raqqa ultimately ends up in the hands of the SAA instead of the SDF, its probably game over for the SDF.... ISIS has about 10 to 20 battalions in Raqqa City, with 2 or 3 battalions guarding the area around the dam just to the west....

Both the SAA and the SDF need to take the dam to guarantee the other doesn't end up with control of the city after the seige, but the SDF could potentially lose too many troops taking the dam to hold the seige while maintaining their current lines with the SAA and the Turks.
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 09, 2017 5:10 pm

The US is positioning for an active role in the upcoming battle in Raqqa:

-Ground units with prominent US flagged vehicle (report as US Army Rangers) have been placed in overt positions along the Kurds' lines with Turkey.

-US conventional forces (indirect fire) have been moved within striking range of Raqqa City.

-The US Military has publicly announced they are positioning 100,000 troops in Kuwait to support the impending operation.

(Now we get to see how Russia, the SAA, and Turkey respond to this move. In the past, they have all stated an active ground role on Syrian soil by conventional US troops would be interpreted as an invasion and a violation of Turkey's Sovereignty (nevermind Russia has Military Police units in Aleppo :roll: )).
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Americalex » Mar 09, 2017 5:26 pm

It's a very interesting play by the US military, a nice fuck you to Turkey's obvious plan to hammer at the Kurds and restore a link to ISIS. The 100k soldiers in Kuwait is an unexpected surprise and if this assertion is correct, it's impressive that they are able to muster such a significant force in the area. An insurance policy against wider Turkish aggression in the whole region?

This reminds me of the arrogance of Erdogan accusing Germany of nazi tactics for opposing his shameless campaigning in Germany for Turkey's adoption of a restored Ottoman Empire Caliphate constitution. The psychosis of these islamists is a level of retardedness that far exceeds the cowardly evil espoused by their delusional humanist sir yes sirs.

Turkey has doubled its army to 1 million soldiers in the past 5 years, 100k doesn't seem out of place to counter their ambitions here.
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 09, 2017 9:54 pm

Trump's public response as to (the why of) the ramp-up of US troops in the area is: he states he called a meeting of all the top military leaders and gave them a "very short timeline" to come up with a plan to utterly obliviate and wipe ISIS of the face of the Earth.

If you remember when it was publicly announced back in 2014 that Delta Operators conducted an air-assault raid against ISIS' finance guy in the heart of Raqqa? The guy himself ended up getting killed, but they managed to haul away all of his file cabinets and computers..... The leading theory is the primary purpose of this raid was to provide irrefutable physical evidence of who was buying from ISIS (as if it were really a mystery to begin with).

Erdogon has really backed himself into a corner this time. The Turkish economy is extremely fragile right now. He will need those million men if he thinks he will hold on to the eastern half of his country (populated by Kurds who have been systematically abused for centuries by the Turks). Nobody would have predicted Syria falling apart 10 years ago, yet Syria was more stable then than Turkey is now.
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 12, 2017 3:45 am

I have been doing some reading on Syria these past few days....

The "SAA" units that have pushed toward the river not, in reality, controlled by the Assad Regime. They are controlled by private businessmen with connections to the Allowite tribes (the folks Russia rents their only Naval port on the Mediterranean from).....

In fact, Assad has almost no true military power at all. Of the 125k or so troops still attributed to him, about 2/3 are poorly trained conscripts that have come under direct control of Iranian military Commanders. Only about 30-40k of them are even capable of offensive operations (Allowite dominated units as described in the previous paragraph) and this only because they are being directly supported by 15k Russian military boots-on-the-ground for support.....

As weakened as ISIS now is, they seem to have halted the recent SAA advance by putting up some nominal resistance at the Airbase in the gap. The SAA is electing to instead consolidate their recent gains and re-double their focus on rebuilding Eleppo.

It would seem the taking of Raqqa City, and the MOST important nearby dam has been a task abandoned by Russia and their allies, and Turkey has been quite literally squeezed out of the battlespace. We will see if the support of the US (and recent attempts to not marginalize the concerns of their Arab allies in their controlled geography) is enough to carry the Kurdish dominated SDF to the first step in their own Country.....
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Mar 12, 2017 4:12 am

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The British and French thought they were being clever when they reneged on this promise....

As if six centuries of grossly and systematically abusing their power and influence over their neighbors would magically disappear overnight when the "Great War" ended. Much as the failure to address the legitimate complaints of Germany would set the stage for WW2, we are now acting out the same folly near 100 years later in the Middle East.

The allies OWE the Kurds near 100 years of restitution for signing a convenient, yet wholey unjust and (frankly) evil compromise with the unrepentant Turks. Turkey has grown fat suckling the milk from Europe's tit, pretending that occupying Constantinople gives them the right to define morality.
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Fat Tony » Mar 13, 2017 5:04 pm

Loving the maps! Interesting to see the proximity to adjacent areas in the latest one. Ancient lands, ancient seas, ancient peoples & modern problems. Everything old is new again. All the best, tony. :smile:
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Dec 22, 2017 9:24 am

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The Dying Breath of ISIS.

Something like 4000 buildings had to be completely destroyed to root them out of Raqa City. (Probably to get at the tunnel networks underneath, or simply just to cut back on coalition casualties.)


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ISIS had a good run at it... Their offensive was halted in 3 directions by the Kurds, Baghdad, and the Syrian Regime. All 3 of these forces then counter-attacks simultaneously, vying for power in the vacuum. I think at this point, there is enough animosity toward ISIS due to their inhuman behavior that they will be completely wiped off the map. Their name will eventually be superseded by the next merry band of be-headers to have a breakout moment on youtube, and the many-faced beast will put on a different mask, having succeeded in once again spreading murder, petulance, death, and destruction wantonly across the face of the land.
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Fat Tony » Jan 02, 2018 5:12 pm

Turkey is a mass of seemingly bizarre contradictions.

I think they promote this image just to make their media political shell game easier.
*then again it might just be that I am being stump headed.

It is not all bad, without Turkey we would never have been blessed with the delicious and unique food known as the donair here in our colonial backwater.

I just noticed there appears to be a Kurdish enclave in Armenia. Damn, I just learned a new thing, thanks!
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Re: Turkish tactical blunder ends ISIS oil income

Postby Windwalker » Jan 03, 2018 6:04 am

Fat Tony wrote:Turkey is a mass of seemingly bizarre contradictions.

I think they promote this image just to make their media political shell game easier.
*then again it might just be that I am being stump headed.

It is not all bad, without Turkey we would never have been blessed with the delicious and unique food known as the donair here in our colonial backwater.

I just noticed there appears to be a Kurdish enclave in Armenia. Damn, I just learned a new thing, thanks!


If you are talking about this map:
Image

I don't think it is so much a "demographics" map but rather the principalities that have been under continuous Kurdish control, having survived 400 years of attempted genocide against them by the Ottoman-Turks.

Traditional Kurdish lands are much wider. The funny shaped lines are from Kurdish Principalities where all the Kurdish peasants were conscripted to fight in Turkish wars, never to return... then were replaced with Turk and Arab peasants... but there is still a large Kurdish presence in most of those areas, too, today. (For example, they currently control near half of Syria, and are slowly chipping a 100 mile wide strip of land between Turkey and Syria.)
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