Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Tempest » Nov 07, 2012 11:03 pm

Hey guys. First time poster, long time lurker as they say. I just wanted to share a theory with you that I'm sure is not new. I've noticed in recent times, as I'm sure we all have, that the ideological gap between Quebec and English Canada has been drastically widening. The debate over the sovereignty of Quebec has long been an issue in both Canadian and North American political spheres. Although I am currently a resident of the U.S. state of Georgia, I had the pleasure of living in Canada, including Quebec, for half of my life. I firmly believe, especially with this apparent recent widening of the Canada-Quebec divide, that Quebec will in time secede from The Confederation (as I'm sure a majority of people here do as well). And in losing Quebec, Canada will loose a solid chunk of it's population, the sprawling industries of the St. Lawrence, some of the nation's largest hydropower sources, vast quantities of resources... both natural and intellectual, one of the nation's largest areas for innovation and research, and of course, a massive chunk of the Canadian GDP.

Whether Quebec in this scenario would remain independent or join the United States, I am not entirely sure. But I would like to think that in time, a State of Quebec would become a reality. Now, for a time, the conservative lawmakers of the Canadian political system would get their wish: a united, English-speaking Canada, free from the 'burden' of Quebec. But in my opinion, Canada, now separated from one of it's largest hubs of economics, innovation, and industry would head down the path of major economic, political, and social stagnation, that may culminate into the breakup of the Canadian Confederation. Assuming at least a successful recovery of the American economy, the the remainder of Canada would finally be able to consider annexation into the Union.

Feel free to comment guys, I would have written more, but I don't like writing massive posts :P
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Lord Don-Jam » Nov 08, 2012 8:57 pm

Welcome Tempest.

It's hard to say with that kind of secession, Canada might become the 'Anti-America' (which is of course not the same thing as being Anti-American).
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby jonathan.jam » Nov 08, 2012 11:36 pm

I agree with Don-Jam; the end result of Quebec separation/statehood is really hard to predict. I would imagine that Ontario and the Maritime Provinces would likely follow Quebec's path. I say Ontario because of how intertwined it is with the American MidWest and Quebec; it really doesn't have strong socio-economic connections with the rest of Canada. Therefore, with hypothetical borders on the West, South and East, Ontario would become extremely isolated. Whether the public truly wanted to or not, the province would likely joins the States because it would be the only practical thing to do.
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Americalex » Nov 09, 2012 12:07 am

Tempest wrote:Hey guys. First time poster, long time lurker as they say. I just wanted to share a theory with you that I'm sure is not new. I've noticed in recent times, as I'm sure we all have, that the ideological gap between Quebec and English Canada has been drastically widening. The debate over the sovereignty of Quebec has long been an issue in both Canadian and North American political spheres. Although I am currently a resident of the U.S. state of Georgia, I had the pleasure of living in Canada, including Quebec, for half of my life. I firmly believe, especially with this apparent recent widening of the Canada-Quebec divide, that Quebec will in time secede from The Confederation (as I'm sure a majority of people here do as well). And in losing Quebec, Canada will loose a solid chunk of it's population, the sprawling industries of the St. Lawrence, some of the nation's largest hydropower sources, vast quantities of resources... both natural and intellectual, one of the nation's largest areas for innovation and research, and of course, a massive chunk of the Canadian GDP.

Whether Quebec in this scenario would remain independent or join the United States, I am not entirely sure. But I would like to think that in time, a State of Quebec would become a reality. Now, for a time, the conservative lawmakers of the Canadian political system would get their wish: a united, English-speaking Canada, free from the 'burden' of Quebec. But in my opinion, Canada, now separated from one of it's largest hubs of economics, innovation, and industry would head down the path of major economic, political, and social stagnation, that may culminate into the breakup of the Canadian Confederation. Assuming at least a successful recovery of the American economy, the the remainder of Canada would finally be able to consider annexation into the Union.

Feel free to comment guys, I would have written more, but I don't like writing massive posts :P

Great to meet you Tempest, are you from Athens by any chance? 8-)

I find your analysis very perceptive and I agree with the propriety of your assessment. I think that many English-Canadians are completely oblivious to this reality and in fact possess inverted perceptions of the actual stakes and situation. Yet what you suggest is confirmed with the recent study that shows that English-Canadian provinces (especially Alberta and Ontario) are prone to defaulting in the coming decades based on their current path.

And yet, similar to the way that many Americans completely discard reality and embrace feel good superficialities like "how great Obama is in terms of coolness", English-Canadians are also deluded about their own direction and prospects and are instead busy externalizing their fears and insecurity on Quebec, portraying it as a "failed child that is the shame of all the nation".

I swear, there are many feckless English-Canadian socialist crap spouting haters on these forums, and none of them, not a single one, has been able to actually utilize their divine gift of a sound mind in a rational way that enables them to address the recent report that came out from the McDonald institute, instead they just dismiss it as a glitch in their delusional construct, and figure that ignoring it is the 'best way for it to simply go away so that the feel good vibe can keep on trucking'.

Here it is again (for the third time on these forums), maybe some of them will be able to overcome their failness and dwelve unto this topic which talks about THEM directly, and discuss the subject in a rational pragmatic and reasonable way? I doubt it. But here it is again. Thankfully Americans aren't under THAT spell, and are intellectually able to investigate these evidences and correspondingly upgrade their understandings to those that you have already voiced, and quite eloquently too. Fuck it, I'm gonna highlight the "key data" with red circles. Maybe that will draw their attention and break the socialist spell that is making their minds oblivious to reality, and maybe even snap them out of their braindead trolling fagness:

Image

http://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/files/pd ... r-2012.pdf

The report is extremely recent too, it's from October 2012! And yet you only hear crickets when this is shown or mentioned to English-Canadians it seems. In utter denial about the reality that Alberta is in deep shit in the mid-term because they may run out of Tar Sands and have not sufficiently diversified their economy, while spending too lavishly for a sustainable prosperity. And Ontario it's very obvious, they are on track to having a retarded 30 billion deficit within 5 years. Meanwhile Quebec is projected to have actual surpluses by then, and our economy has been able to absorb the recent crashes really well because we did our clean-up in the 90s for the most part (we got hit really hard back then).

I do see your scenario playing out that way in the event of a Quebec secession. You have a good grasp of how social organisms function. I like to read long posts, so maybe the solution is for you to chunk out many mid sized posts in a row that way you don't offend yourself ;) Better yet, I like to have my browser read long posts to me: That chrome add-on, called "SpeakIt!", is simply epic.
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby dans » Nov 09, 2012 12:10 am

jonathan.jam wrote:I agree with Don-Jam; the end result of Quebec separation/statehood is really hard to predict. I would imagine that Ontario and the Maritime Provinces would likely follow Quebec's path. I say Ontario because of how intertwined it is with the American MidWest and Quebec; it really doesn't have strong socio-economic connections with the rest of Canada. Therefore, with hypothetical borders on the West, South and East, Ontario would become extremely isolated. Whether the public truly wanted to or not, the province would likely joins the States because it would be the only practical thing to do.

But what if we don't want another mid-Western state, especially one that far north and east?! ;)

I'm joking! But I am a little curious about why you assert that Ontario would leave Canada, but the rest would stay in. Population wise, no other Province (other than Quebec) has got what Ontario has. Economic size, too. Canada's 30 million people already find it difficult to resist the US's gravity, what makes you think the Prairie Provinces, BC, and the territories (the territories individually have fewer people than just my county, combined, fewer than my county and the one immediately east of it) could resist by themselves?
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Lord Don-Jam » Nov 09, 2012 12:57 am

dans wrote:
jonathan.jam wrote:I agree with Don-Jam; the end result of Quebec separation/statehood is really hard to predict. I would imagine that Ontario and the Maritime Provinces would likely follow Quebec's path. I say Ontario because of how intertwined it is with the American MidWest and Quebec; it really doesn't have strong socio-economic connections with the rest of Canada. Therefore, with hypothetical borders on the West, South and East, Ontario would become extremely isolated. Whether the public truly wanted to or not, the province would likely joins the States because it would be the only practical thing to do.

But what if we don't want another mid-Western state, especially one that far north and east?! ;)

I'm joking! But I am a little curious about why you assert that Ontario would leave Canada, but the rest would stay in. Population wise, no other Province (other than Quebec) has got what Ontario has. Economic size, too. Canada's 30 million people already find it difficult to resist the US's gravity, what makes you think the Prairie Provinces, BC, and the territories (the territories individually have fewer people than just my county, combined, fewer than my county and the one immediately east of it) could resist by themselves?

Or North Ontario stays in Canada but the South does not. The North feels themslids to be part of Western Canada.
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Tempest » Nov 09, 2012 1:05 am

Lord Don-Jam wrote:Welcome Tempest.

It's hard to say with that kind of secession, Canada might become the 'Anti-America' (which is of course not the same thing as being Anti-American).

Thanks for the welcome. As with any social-political issue, especially one of this scale, comes an inherent high degree of unpredictability. But I see this as one of the most likely options for a Canadian annexation scenario.

Americalex wrote: Great to meet you Tempest, are you from Athens by any chance? 8-)

Thanks for the warm welcome! And no, while I don't live in Athens itself, I'm not too far away :D

Americalex wrote: I do see your scenario playing out that way in the event of a Quebec secession. You have a good grasp of how social organisms function.

Thanks! The social and political engines of societies have always interested me. I just noticed that the concept I have put forth seems to match your "Domino Scenario" quite closely. I personally see this as the most likely option for a partial/total Canadian annexation in the short-mid term.
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Americalex » Nov 09, 2012 10:04 am

Tempest wrote:Thanks for the warm welcome! And no, while I don't live in Athens itself, I'm not too far away :D

It was a long shot but I figured maybe you were were one of the guys from "Of Montreal", they are a band from Athens, Georgia that came up with their name because one of them had a former girlfriend who was "Of Montreal" lol

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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Tempest » Nov 09, 2012 10:22 am

Americalex wrote:
Tempest wrote:Thanks for the warm welcome! And no, while I don't live in Athens itself, I'm not too far away :D

It was a long shot but I figured maybe you were were one of the guys from "Of Montreal", they are a band from Athens, Georgia that came up with their name because one of them had a former girlfriend who was "Of Montreal" lol


Hah, that would be quite the longshot. :wink:
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Moose » Dec 30, 2012 8:03 pm

The whole point of seceding is so that us English speaking Canadians don't have to associate ourselves with those leftist Quebecers. The Anglo Quebecers and Quebecois minorities that will feel threatened could be given compensation packages

Here's an interesting video on October 30th 1995 from MICHAEL IGNATIEFF:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOmd2U7IF9Y
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Milton » Dec 30, 2012 11:33 pm

Two of my friends are what are called a "snowbirds". They are Canadians who spend the winter down here. They're like me, getting old, and their old bones ache during the interminable Canadian winters. So now they spend the winter down here with their daughter who has married an American. They actually live in their motorhome on a pad built next to their daughter's house. Anyway, I have spoken with them about this and other matters, and it seems that they too are concerned about Canadian fragmentation if Quebec goes. They think Quebec will hang on for several more years, but will eventually secede, and that the rest of Canada will leave Confederation shortly thereafter, beginning with not Ontario, but rather the Maritimes. They believe that B.C. will be the last Province to bid for Statehood, and that the whole process, from Quebec secession to B.C. finally joining the Union will take about twenty years. In a way they are my first "converts", in the sense that they have begun to move on to the concept of the United English Speaking States. Like me, they look to the future when a united English speaking World must be ready to stand alone against the forces of barbarism in the Muslim World and China, both of which we see breaking down and descending into a kind of "Dark Age", where they are fighting each other after breaking up into small warlord states in China, and sultanates in the Muslim World. Russia may rise again as a threat, if it does not also break up. While this may sound depressing, it also may be an opportunity for the English speaking World to finally heal the rift that has kept us divided since the American Revolution split us apart way back in the late eighteenth century. My friends would like to see Canada succeed, but as they observe: Canada without Quebec is pointless. They believe Quebec will go it's own way for a while, and could possibly actually make a go of it as an independent country, but that it is more likely to eventually make a bid to join the U.S. as well. That brings up the question of whether the thought of Quebec Statehood may give Americans "gas", when we remember all the trouble Canada had with that Province. We'll have to think about that one.---Milton
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Americalex » Dec 31, 2012 1:30 am

Moose wrote:The whole point of seceding is so that us English speaking Canadians don't have to associate ourselves with those leftist Quebecers. The Anglo Quebecers and Quebecois minorities that will feel threatened could be given compensation packages

Here's an interesting video on October 30th 1995 from MICHAEL IGNATIEFF:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOmd2U7IF9Y

Welcome on the forums Moose,

So I wonder, concerning your stance about the annexation proposition, where do you stand in terms of optimal envisaged future for North America? The status quo? Annexation with Quebec as an independent country? Something else entirely? Cheers.

Oh and by the way you can embed Youtube videos directly just pasting the code of the video (in this case the code is BOmd2U7IF9Y from the link) and then you select it and click on the youtube button while editing a post, and this is what comes out:

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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby jonathan.jam » Dec 31, 2012 1:38 am

I think the most interesting thing to see if Quebec broke-off would be whether she would be the first to join the Union or the last...
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Moose » Dec 31, 2012 4:05 am

Americalex wrote:
Moose wrote:The whole point of seceding is so that us English speaking Canadians don't have to associate ourselves with those leftist Quebecers. The Anglo Quebecers and Quebecois minorities that will feel threatened could be given compensation packages

Here's an interesting video on October 30th 1995 from MICHAEL IGNATIEFF:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOmd2U7IF9Y

Welcome on the forums Moose,

So I wonder, concerning your stance about the annexation proposition, where do you stand in terms of optimal envisaged future for North America? The status quo? Annexation with Quebec as an independent country? Something else entirely? Cheers.

Oh and by the way you can embed Youtube videos directly just pasting the code of the video (in this case the code is BOmd2U7IF9Y from the link) and then you select it and click on the youtube button while editing a post, and this is what comes out:



Thanks for the tip :D

I believe the best course for the future of North America would dissolution of the highly de-centralized Canadian confederation once Quebec separates.

Quebec is a culturally distinct nation with its own language. It should've been its own independent nation years ago.

Here's how I see the dissolution of Canada taking place. (chronological order of potential future of events. [b]Note that this all takes probably over a decade)
[/b]

1. Quebec votes to secede from Canada. Quebec's interim government assumes a portion of Canada's debts in the process. Independence process for Quebec estimated to take 2 years.
2. Canadian American Businessmen finance "New Continental Union" political party and start holding rallies in Alberta, the Maritimes and Toronto. US Neocons finance NCU's Alberta operation
3. NCU elected into government in Newfoundland and becomes largest opposition party in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and PEI. NCU immediately signs a memorandum of understanding with US Secretary of State to become the 51st state contingent upon the results of a 50%+1 referendum
4. Liberals and NDP merge to prevent Conservatives from forming a political dynasty that could tear the country apart. They become the Democratic Party of Canada.
5. NCU wins elections in Saskatchewan and Manitoba promising to restore Canadian institutions such as the Pension, Healthcare and Gun laws while expanding civil liberties.
6. NCU wins Toronto municipal elections in most Toronto suburbs and in the centre of the city. NCU plans a referendum within 90 days.
7. Canadian Nationalists win all constituencies on Vancouver Island in BC, but the NCU wins on the mainland. Vancouver Island secedes from British Columbia and becomes its own province
8. Canada enters a severe recession as US trade shifts to Asia and Europe
9. In federal elections, Conservatives/NCU get around 100 seats a pop and the Democrats get around 75. Greens get 5. Democrats and the Conservatives form a National Unity Government
10. Toronto and its suburbs all the way down to Windsor and up to Kingston join Manitoba and Saskatchewan to become the enlarged province of West Ontario
11.
a. Newfoundland agrees to become the 51st American state
b. West Ontario provincial government and US Secretary of State sign a memorandum of understanding enlisting West Ontario as the 52ndst American State contingent upon a 50%+1 referendum
12. Alberta elects an overwhelmingly NCU government.
13. Alberta and British Columbia merge into the "State of Jefferson", named in honour of the Lewis and Clark expedition that 3rd US President Thomas Jeffersons sent West.
14. State of Jefferson signs a memorandum of understanding with the United States government planning to join the United States over a period of 2-years in order to begin the economic recovery. The State of Jefferson provisional government adopted the "Preservation Act" in order to preserve Canada's healthcare system and social safety net
15. On July 4th 2023, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper ordered all military units to surrender to the army of the United States. Harper passed the "Preservation act" handing all Canadian monuments over to the US park services, preserving Canada's safety social net and continuing CBC at a shared cost of the former Canadian provinces Maritime provinces merge into the state of "Atlantic Canada" named in honour of the former country
16. Canada dissolves officially forming the US states of Victoria, Jefferson, West Ontario, Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Yukon, NWT and Nunavut become territories of the enlarged United States of America

That was long :oops:

I'd like to note that any Canadian-American merger would probably see the death of neo conservativism.

The battle between Democrats and Republicans would focus on the enlarged' United States status as a superpower. Debate would also probably focus on diminishing civil liberties and the expansion of the United States government.
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Milton » Dec 31, 2012 4:32 am

Alberta and British Columbia are each certainly more than sufficient to form States on their own. The only Province for which this might not be true would be Prince Edward Island, which might become one or more counties of another Province, which could in turn become a State. In any case it looks as if you have gone to some trouble to work this out in so much detail.---Milton
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Moose » Dec 31, 2012 4:45 am

Milton wrote:Alberta and British Columbia are each certainly more than sufficient to form States on their own. The only Province for which this might not be true would be Prince Edward Island, which might become one or more counties of another Province, which could in turn become a State. In any case it looks as if you have gone to some trouble to work this out in so much detail.---Milton


Yes, the order of events suggests that in order for Canadian fragmentation to take place certain political conditions need to exist.

US Fiscal Cliff and a 2nd recession, anybody?
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Milton » Dec 31, 2012 7:52 am

Let's hope not. We aren't recovered from the first recession yet. Besides I don't want Canada to break up. I want Canada to join us as a whole rather than piecemeal, and only with the support of a majority of Canadian AND American voters in a free and fair election. That is the democratic way, and the Canadian way, and the American way, and the Right way. Any other way would not only be creepy and underhanded, but morally wrong.---Milton
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Moose » Jan 03, 2013 5:30 am

The only way will be a Canadian fragmentation
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Americalex » Jan 03, 2013 10:41 am

Moose wrote:Yes, the order of events suggests that in order for Canadian fragmentation to take place certain political conditions need to exist.

US Fiscal Cliff and a 2nd recession, anybody?

Wouldn't such events only work to stymie any support coming from Canadians (Quebec or ROC) towards any democratic annexation proposition? They only point towards a proverbial "failboat" that people will not want to latch themselves unto I think.

Canada is doing pretty well considering the circumstances, rather it is the big republics like France and the USA that are looking shaky and unstable. Now, with that said, there is a growing segment in English-Canada that is receptive to the "Let Quebec Go" notion even though Quebecers are not willing to go.

I wonder if there might be a movement in Conservative English-Canada to promote kicking Quebec out literally? "If they won't leave, we will make them leave" type of approach. That could indeed force a fragmentation to happen.
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Re: Canadian fragmentation following Quebec secession

Postby Milton » Jan 03, 2013 3:49 pm

I really don't like that idea.---Milton
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