Limited Mexican Scenario

Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby dans » Oct 09, 2013 1:24 pm

I was reading about the various states of Mexico last week. Anyway, it seems Mexico is actually a pretty well-to-do country in world terms, but it has both very wealthy and very poor regions. The interesting thing is that it can be divided into 5 bands, from North to South, alternating between rich and poor. Up north, Baja California and Sonora especially, you have regions already well connected to Southwestern US culture (including the cowboy imagery). NAFTA and changes to Mexican law that encouraged foreign investment instead of discouraging it made regions that were once rather poor very well to do and well integrated into the North American (as opposed to Mexican) economy. South of this region is a very poverty stricken region, sparsely populated desert unfit for agricultural production. This region is also the origin of most migrant workers in the US. Below that is Mexico City and the center of Mexico. This region is the financial capital of Latin America and the industrial capital of Mexico. Very well to do, this region is wealthier than some parts of the US. But it has a separate Mexican cultural identity apart from the Southwestern identity further north. Next is another band of intense poverty, this time, unfortunately, very populated. These workers tend to go to other regions in Mexico, though. Last is the Yucatan Penninsula area. Oil rich, but poor for non-oil workers. Cultural identity here is more like it is in Central America, that is, native Mayan. (Incidentally, my little brother, who happens to be in Guatemala, tells me that Mexico has a fence to its south to keep Guatemalans out. It seems they have a similar opinion of Guatemalans as we do of them.)

One reason for the intense poverty is the agricultural model used throughout most of Mexico. Essentially, it's a form of collectivized farming where the people get a small plot for their own family but with no way to divest it or acquire more. The plot needs to feed the family, as well as provide supplementary income.

So, that's Mexico. Culturally a mix of Southwestern Hispano-American, Mestizo, and Mayan culture. I'd say that the northern parts of the country are Annexation possibilities, especially Sonora and the two Baja Californias. Can someone make an example map of that, also a map of those states and all of the other current Mexican border states as US states? Possibly as part of a bigger Canadian-American union, too?
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Windwalker » Oct 09, 2013 9:17 pm

dans wrote:I'd say that the northern parts of the country are Annexation possibilities, especially Sonora and the two Baja Californias. Can someone make an example map of that, also a map of those states and all of the other current Mexican border states as US states? Possibly as part of a bigger Canadian-American union, too?

I remember reading once (can't remember where) some stats on how Mexicans feel about becoming American. In the northern border States, around 50% of Mexicans stated that they would become American Citizens if given a choice. In central and southern Mexico, it was significantly lower.

50% is pretty high, but still a far way off from the over 95% of Mexican Citizens who voluntarily became American Citizens in what is now the American Southwest following the Mexican-American War.
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Americalex » Oct 10, 2013 8:44 pm

Image

I included those that seemed to make sense in terms of a relatively straightforward international border. It would reduce the size of the US/Mexico border roughly by half by the looks of it. For the rest of Mexico to ever agree to this, there would need to be incentives and probably a consolidation of Central American countries into some form of agglomerate in my opinion.
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby -MM- » Oct 15, 2013 3:14 pm

Americalex wrote:Image

I included those that seemed to make sense in terms of a relatively straightforward international border. It would reduce the size of the US/Mexico border roughly by half by the looks of it. For the rest of Mexico to ever agree to this, there would need to be incentives and probably a consolidation of Central American countries into some form of agglomerate in my opinion.


That's a humongous hypothetical USA that I wish to see in my lifetime. However, as you said in the other thread, who in their right mind would want to join the United States right now with Washington in such a mess and with a national debt nearing $20 trillion? Canadians sure as hell don't and Mexicans probably don't want to either. I'm surprised Puerto Ricans are still trying to join and states such as Texas are not trying to secede at this point.

I will say that annexing Mexican states would be even harder than annexing Canada's provinces as new states. I feel Mexican have just as high, if not higher, sense of patriotism than Canadians, there's too much poverty and way lower HDI as compared to the US, even in their northern states. Will be interesting to see if PR joins and is able to improve its economy, poverty levels, unemployment, etc, then it bodes well for future Mexican states joining. Some Mexican states would have to merge because I don't see how 9 new states coming from Mexico would work.

Incentives for the rest of Mexico to accept this would be money, as always. Not sure why them merging with Guatemala, Honduras, etc would be a pre requisite. With that said, I think a scenario where Mexican states join the Union is very unlikely, as there would be a lot of resistance on both sides. If it were to ever happen, it would be after Canada is annexed into the US. Even though we are geographically very far from each other, Australia, NZ, or UK joining is more likely than Mexico, IMHO.
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Americalex » Oct 15, 2013 5:00 pm

You're right, it wouldn't need a Central American union for them to exist without the Northern States. I was thinking about it from an economic/logistical perspective, but it is true that these little countries don't always get along or feel affinity for one another to begin with. You're right especially concerning that last statement. Indeed Canada would provide a framework for other attuned nations to perhaps want to join, like the other Commonwealth Realms. I think this could extend to other first world places and probably stop there also.

Beyond the Anglosphere I'm thinking as a Quebecer about places like Norway, Israel, Japan. My idea is that 1st world countries can help 2nd and 3rd world become 1st world too before actually enabling them to join a would be expandable United States. Clearly Mexico seems quite low compatibility in terms of cultural mentality, and it seems so not only from the perspective of Mexicans but of North Americans also. And any sovereign annexation has to amass the broad support of both sides of a given merger proposition for it to be legitimate.

I just don't see such support coming to fruition for Mexico, under the brutal trend of shockingly common violence that permeates their society at the moment. But I do think that they certainly have the potential to eventually rise up to first world nation status, if they get serious about it. What Puerto Rico & Quebec have a potential to do is provide a framework for the effective integration of non-primarily English speaking states at the regional level. I'd like to see a similar flexibility with official religion, enabling the membership of Israel eventually.
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Windwalker » Oct 16, 2013 6:01 pm

Americalex wrote:You're right, it wouldn't need a Central American union for them to exist without the Northern States. I was thinking about it from an economic/logistical perspective, but it is true that these little countries don't always get along or feel affinity for one another to begin with...

It would seem that 4 of the 5 Central American Nations that were once member States of a single Republic back in the 19th century are now seriously working toward re-integration:

Wikipedia wrote:Four countries, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, are going through a process of political, cultural, and migratory integration and have formed a group called The Central America Four or CA-4, which has introduced common internal borders and same type of passport.

This treaty was signed in 2006, however, and it is the first I have heard of these 4 nations developing common borders and a single passport system. I wonder what, exactly, the Wikipedia contributor that added "going through a process of political [and] cultural ... integration" was refering too?

Nothing but Wikipedia readily pops up on this treaty. Perhaps I could find something more official if I knew more than a just a few words of Spanish?
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Bayowolf » Oct 16, 2013 6:55 pm

Nothing but Wikipedia readily pops up on this treaty. Perhaps I could find something more official if I knew more than a just a few words of Spanish?

I found this one: http://www.agr.gc.ca/itpd-dpci/cr/4885-eng.htm

This talks about something called the "Central American Integration System" that includes all 7 countries between Mexico and Columbia plus the Dominican Republic; it mentions the CA-4:
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Windwalker » Oct 16, 2013 7:54 pm

Yes... I was reading about the CAIS on Wikipedia (which is where I found out about the CA-4 treaty.) It seems to me that CAIS is aimed at economic integration, something like NAFTA, but that the idea behind the CA-4 treaty is do develope into something similar (or possibly even more integrated) than the EU.

Bayowolf wrote:I found this one: http://www.agr.gc.ca/itpd-dpci/cr/4885-eng.htm

interesting. It says Canada has done 12 rounds of negotiations starting in 2001 with the CA4, but according to Wikipedia, the CA4 treaty was signed in 2006.
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Windwalker » Oct 17, 2013 8:20 pm

Just for shits-and-giggles I pulled the numbers on the GDP (PPP) per Capita, and the HDI (Human Development Index) score of the 3 major North American, and 7 major Central American Nations for comparison.
(The GDP (PPP) per capita figures are an average of the three major rating organizations, the World Bank, the IMF, and the CIA.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... ment_Index
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... y_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

GDP (PPP) per Capita
50,790 USA
42,750 Canada
15,988 Panama
15,898 Mexico
12,764 Costa Rica
8,363 Belize
7,341 El Salvador
5,300 Guatemala
4,700 Honduras
4,072 Nicaragua

HDI Scores:
.937 USA
.911 Canada
.780 Panama
.775 Mexico
.773 Costa Rica
.702 Belize
.680 El Salvador
.632 Honduras
.599 Nicaragua
.581 Guatamala

---------------------

The two major things I notices are one, that Costa Rica seems to be living up to its reputation of being more developed than the rest of Central America, and two, although one would be tempted to atribute Panama's status of being on par with that of Mexico to their Canal income, the fact that they are equal with Mexico on the HDI would naturally counter that argument.

It is interesting that the 4 (Central American) nations who seem to be seeking some form of political unification not only share a congruent border and a history (although 5-7 generations ago) of political unification, but are also on the same page when it comes to the HDI and their GDP(PPP) per capita.

Now for the purpose of this execise....
one must needs find the data on Mexico by Region and/or State rather than comparing all of Mexico to the USA and Central America.... sigh.. :|

PS I was tempted to leave Belize out, as they are basically a town with a large territory, with a promise of British protections if it came to that.
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Americalex » Oct 18, 2013 5:43 pm

Windwalker wrote:Now for the purpose of this execise....
one must needs find the data on Mexico by Region and/or State rather than comparing all of Mexico to the USA and Central America.... sigh.. :|

Bang on, I looked for them but couldn't find anything..

But just imagine how valuable it would be for our analysis if we could grab HDI stats for each American State and Canadian Province, that would be really useful..
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Windwalker » Oct 24, 2013 8:42 pm

Americalex wrote:But just imagine how valuable it would be for our analysis if we could grab HDI stats for each American State and Canadian Province, that would be really useful..

the raw data needed for each State/Province in order to apply the UN's HDI formula is:
1. Life Expectancy at birth
2. Mean years of schooling (Years that a 25-year-old person or older has spent in schools)
3. Expected years of schooling (Years that a 5-year-old child will spend with his education in his whole life)
4. Gross national income at purchasing power parity per capita

-I think 3 is the easiest, as I believe that would be 12 for all States and Provinces.
-1 and 2 could probably be found at Stats Canada and the Census B.
-I will have to do some research to see if anyone has calculated GDP (ppp) per Capita at the State/Province level.

Now, if only I could find my graphing calculator... :?
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Americalex » Oct 24, 2013 9:50 pm

For some reason which eludes me -probably due to using a different search string-, I was suddenly able to find them really easily:

HDI List by Province
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ca ... ment_Index

Image

American HDI List by State
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U. ... ment_Index

The American one is problematic because it is not the standard HDI index. However using data from an alternate source we get this:

HDI by State
http://mapscroll.blogspot.ca/2009/05/hu ... state.html

Image

From this if I can build a Canada+USA list and maybe bring out some charts and ultimately geo-location using a common color coding scheme, I'll work on it when I get a chance.
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Windwalker » Oct 24, 2013 10:45 pm

Image

For some reason I am not surprised that life in Mississippi is comparable to life in Mexico, Costa Rica, and Panama.
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Re: Limited Mexican Scenario

Postby Windwalker » Oct 24, 2013 11:03 pm

Image

I should point out that the "underdeveloped" portion of the US...
Image

have scores of right around 800. On par with Mexico City and a handful of northern Mexican States, shown in dark green on the above map of Mexico.

----

Here it is, I created a map with HDI by state/province/district for Canada, United States & Mexico using a harmonized color coding scheme:

Image
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